Liverpool’s grip on the Premier League crown is tightening with every passing game, and now, with a 13-point lead, it seems more a question of “when” rather than “if” they will be crowned champions.
No team in English football history has ever led by this much at this stage and failed to win the title—and the numbers say Liverpool won’t be the first.
Their 2-0 victory over Newcastle on Wednesday, coupled with Arsenal’s stumbles—including a goalless draw against Nottingham Forest—has turned what was once a fierce title race into what pundits are calling a “procession.”
Alexis Mac Allister celebrates with teammates Dominik Szoboszlai and Mohamed Salah. (Photo by Liverpool FC/Liverpool FC via Getty Images)
A Historic Lead—And a Near-Guaranteed Trophy
Liverpool’s dominance isn’t just about their lead—it’s about how statistically inevitable their triumph is.
Opta analysts give them a 98.7% chance of winning the title, with Arsenal hanging on to a slim 1.3% hope.
Former Forest manager Martin O’Neill bluntly declared that Arsenal’s title hopes were over after their draw against Forest.
“I cannot see Arsenal catching Liverpool, not at all,” he said on TNT Sports.
And if Liverpool boss Arne Slot is feeling the weight of expectations, he’s not letting it show.
“It is still a long way to go, 10 games,” he insisted, adding that their Champions League focus is taking priority over title celebrations—for now.
When Will Liverpool Be Crowned?
Barring a miraculous collapse, Liverpool could have the title wrapped up as early as April 5—if they win their next three games and Arsenal drop points in their next four.
If Arsenal win their game in hand and maintain form, Liverpool could still clinch the trophy on April 26 against Tottenham, with a possible title-decider against Chelsea on May 3.
And if fate plays its part, Arsenal could be forced to form a guard of honour for Liverpool at Anfield on May 10.
Records in Sight?
Liverpool have the chance to etch their dominance into the record books. They could:
Match their own record (2019-20) of winning the league with seven games to spare—though they’d need Arsenal to collapse for that.
Join Man United (2000-01) and Man City (2017-18) in winning with five games left.
Break the record for the earliest title win (April 14, 2001) if they extend their lead even further.
The only downside? They cannot match Man City’s 100-point season, but their maximum of 97 points would still cement their dominance.
The End of the Chase?
With Manchester City 20 points back and Arsenal’s form faltering, it seems that only Liverpool can stop Liverpool now.
Their final stretch includes clashes with Chelsea, Arsenal, and Spurs, but the damage to their rivals may already be beyond repair.
For now, Liverpool fans can start planning their celebrations—because history suggests they won’t be disappointed.
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